LTE Roadmap 2010-2015 - Towards 4G: The next generation technology in waiting offering medium to long term high margin growth opportunities

Executive Summary
E1. LTE Emerges as a Strong Contender of 4G
E2. Market will continue to Support Multiple Access Technologies
E3. LTE offers Promises to Expand and Grow the Wireless Ecosystem
E4. Interoperable LTE Devices will be Available by 2011
E5. Mass Market Adoption of LTE will take Eight to 10 Years
E6. LTE will reverse the Traffic and Revenue Growth Scenario
E7. Effect of Recession on LTE Deployments
E8. Findings of the Report

1. Introduction
1.1 4G Vision
Table 1: 4G System Requirements
1.2 LTE offers Increased Capacity and Higher Speed Benefits to Operators
1.3 What is the Genuine 4G Experience?
Table 2: Operator Benefits from LTE
Table 3: 4G Experience
1.4 Will LTE follow the same path as 3G?
Chart 1: iPhone Success
Table 4: Pointers that show LTE will be successful
1.5 LTE: Technology Push or Market Pull Strategy?
1.5.1 Push Strategy
1.5.2 Pull Strategy
1.6 Is it the Right Time for LTE Deployment?
Table 5: Current LTE Realities
1.7 Field Force Analysis for LTE
Figure 1: Driving and Resisting Forces for LTE Deployment
1.8 Aim of the Report
1.8.1 LTE Technology Assessment Framework
Figure 2: LTE Decision Making Framework
1.9 Questions Answered by this Report
1.10 Report Structure
1.11 Report Scope

2. Analysing LTE
2.1 Understating the LTE Technology
Table 6: LTE at a Glance
Table 7: LTE Quantified
2.1.1 LTE Architecture
Figure 3: Elements in LTE Networks
2.1.1.1 eNode B Solutions
Table 8: Attributes of a successful eNodeB solution
2.1.1.1.1 Multi-standard RANs
2.1.1.1.2 Discrete LTE Overlay Solution
2.1.1.2 EPC (Evolved Packet Core)
2.1.1.3 Backhaul Solutions
2.1.2 OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing)
2.1.3 MIMO
2.1.3.1 Smart Antennas
2.1.4 Flat Network Architecture
2.1.5 Spectrum Utilisation
2.1.6 Evolutionary Upgrade
2.1.7 Interoperability with legacy networks
2.1.8 Universal Approach
2.2 LTE Ecosystem
Figure 4: LTE Value Chain
2.2.1 LTE Chipset Developers
2.2.1.1 Qualcomm
Table 9: Qualcomm's LTE Solutions
2.2.1.2 Waveset
2.2.1.3 ST-Ericsson
2.1.2.4 Samsung
2.2.1.5 Altair Semiconductor
2.2.1.6 Infineon
2.2.1.7 Sequans Communication
2.2.1.8 Comsys Mobile
2.2.1.9 TriQuint Semiconductor
2.2.1.10 Skyworks Solutions
2.2.2 LTE Device Manufacturer
2.2.2.1 Nokia
2.2.2..2 Samsung
2.2.2.3 LG
2.2.2.4 Sony Ericsson
2.2.2.5 Apple
2.2.3 LTE Infrastructure Providers
Table 10: Top Five LTE Infrastructure Vendors
2.2.3.1 Ericsson
2.2.3.2 Nokia Siemens
2.2.3.2.1 Nokia Siemens and Nortel
2.2.3.3 Alcatel Lucent
2.2.3.4 Huawei
2.2.3.5 Motorola
2.2.3.6 ADC
2.2.3.7 Fujitsu
2.2.3.8 ZTE
2.2.4 LTE Backhaul Solutions Vendors
2.2.4.1 Ceragon Networks
2.2.5.2 DragonWave
2.2.5.3 RAD Data Communications
2.2.5 EPC Solution Providers
2.2.5.1 Starent Networks
2.2.5.2 Bridgewater Systems
2.2.6 Other Companies that are part of the LTE Ecosystem
2.2.6.1 Acme Packet
2.2.7 Application Developers
2.3 LTE Challenges
2.3.1 Licensing and Use of Spectrum
Table 11: LTE Spectrum Analysis
2.3.2 Coverage
2.3.3 Interference
2.3.4 Backhaul Costs and Options
2.3.5 Evolving to an all IP Network
2.3.6.1 VolGA approach
2.3.6.2 Circuit Switch Fallback (CS Fallback):
2.3.6.3 VOIP Approach as proposed by Nokia Siemens
2.3.7 Interoperability Issues
2.3.8 LTE Handset Issues
2.4 Risks with LTE
2.4.1 If Alternative Technologies prove to be more Cost Effective
2.4.1.1 UMB
2.4.1.2 WiMax
2.4.2 If LTE become a Universal Standard?
2.4.3 Uncertain Returns
2.4.4 R&D Investments
2.5 Operator Realities and LTE Field Trials
2.6 Setting of LTE Standards and Regulations
Table 12: LTE Standards Bodies
2.6.1 3GPP
2.6.2 Next Generation Mobile Network Alliance (NGMN)
2.6.3 IPR Framework for LTE/SAE
2.6.4 LTE/SAE Trial Initiative
2.7 Possibilities and Benefits from LTE Deployments
2.7.1 Increase in the Profitability of the Wireless Industry
2.7.2 Increase in Customer Satisfaction
2.7.3 Flexibility to use existing/new frequency bands
2.8 Logical Conclusions/Recommendations from the Data Available
Table 13: LTE SWOT Analysis
2.9 How can operators best exploit their strength in relation to the opportunities?

3. Political Realities of the Various Alternative LTE Strategies
3.1 Environment Analysis
Figure 5: Factors Affecting MNO's Decision to Deploy LTE
3.1.1 Competitor Assessment and Regional LTE Strategy
3.1.2 Current Network Infrastructure
Table 14: LTE Strategies based on Legacy Systems
3.1.3 Financial Situation
3.1.4 3G success and Customer Requirements
Table 15: Internal Strength/Weakness Assessment
3.1.5 Time to Market
3.2 Applying Infrastructure Choices to Business Needs
3.3 LTE Deployment Approaches
3.3.1 Big Bang Approach
3.3.2 Step by Step Approach
3.4 LTE Deployment Strategies
Figure 6: Operator Strategies to Deploy LTE
3.4.1 Discrete LTE Overlay Strategy
3.4.2 Multi Standard RAN
Table 16: Difference between the Single and Multi standard RAN Solutions
3.4.3 Use of Spectrum
3.4.4 Multi Vendor Approach
3.5 Alternative Strategies to enhance Data Rates and Improve Capacity
3.5.1 Enhancing 3G and HSPA Networks
3.5.4 Deploying WiMax
3.5.4.1 WiMax Statistics
Chart 2: WiMax Subscriber Growth (2007-2015)
Chart 3: WiMax Equipment and Device Market in Billion (2009-2015)
3.5.5 Femto Cell Solution
3.5.5.1 LTE Femtocells
3.6 Summary

4. Operator Perspective and Case Studies
Table 18: List of Operators Interested in LTE
4.1 Operators making strides in LTE deployment
4.1.1 DoCoMo
4.1.1.1 LTE deployment activities undertaken by DoCoMo
4.1.2 KDDI Corp
4.1.3 Verizon Wireless
4.1.4 TeliaSonera
4.1.5 Tele2 and Telenor
4.1.6 Telstra
4.1.7 Telecom Italia
4.1.8 MetroPCS
4.1.9 China Mobile
4.1.10 T-Mobile, Austria
4.1.11 SmarTone-Vodafone, Hong Kong
4.1.12 SK Telecom and KTF
4.1.13 Rogers Wireless
4.2 Operators Not in Favour of LTE Anytime Sooner
4.2.1 Vodafone
4.2.2 Softbank Mobile Corp
4.2.3 AT&T
4.2.4 T-Mobile
4.2.5 Bell Canada and Telus
4.2.6 3, Hutchison
4.2.7 Orange
4.3 Summary

5. Business Case for LTE
5.1 Analysing the Economic Attractiveness of LTE
Table 19: Economic Benefits from LTE Networks
5.1.1 ARPU
Chart 4: Voice and Data ARPU in the US
Chart 5: Data ARPU by Geography (2009)
Chart 6: Data ARPU by Geography (2015 )
Chart 7: Data revenues as a percentage of total revenues (2009-2015)
Chart 8: Verizon Wireless's Data ARPU from LTE (2010-2015)
5.1.2 Data Traffic Growth
Chart 9: Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth (2009-2015)
5.1.3 Data Subscribers
5.1.3.1 3G Subscriber Growth
Chart 10: Global W-CDMA and GSM Subscriber Growth (2009-2015)
Chart 11: Global 3G Revenues (2009-2015)
5.1.3.2 HSPA Subscriber Growth
Table 20: HSDPA and WCDMA Statistics (2009
Chart 12: HSPA Device Availability (2009-2015)
5.1.4 New Revenue Generating Applications
Figure 7: LTE Bandwidth Propositions
Table 21: Applications Enabled by LTE
Chart 13: Percentage Data Revenues Generated by Different Data Applications (2015)
5.1.4.1 Gaming
Chart 14: Global Gaming Revenues
Chart 15: Gaming Market By Geography
5.1.4.2 Messaging Applications/Social Networking
Chart 16: MIM Revenue Growth (2009-2015)
5.1.4.3 Mobile Internet Browsing and Searching
Chart 17: Mobile Browsing Usage for February 2009
Chart 18: Mobile Search Engine Usage for February 2009
5.1.4.4 Mobile Video telephony
Chart 19: Mobile Video Telephony Revenues (2009-2015)
5.1.4.5 Presence/location based Applications
5.1.4.6 Professional/Enterprise Applications
5.1.5 Growth of Mobile Broadband
5.1.5.1 Broadband Penetration
Chart 20: Mobile Broadband Subscriber Growth (2006-2008)
Chart 21: Mobile Broadband Penetration (2009-2015)
5.1.6 CAPEX Savings with LTE
Chart 22: CapEx Savings with LTE (1)
Chart 23: CAPEX Savings with LTE (2)
5.1.7 OpEx Savings with LTE
Chart 24: Savings with Per Mega Bit of LTE Data Delivery
Chart 25: Cost and Profit analysis for the Network Operators
Chart 26: OpEx Saving From Self Optimising Feature of LTE Networks
5.2 Cost of LTE Deployment
5.3 Managed Services with LTE
Chart 27: Managed Services with LTE (2015)
5.4 LTE Forecasts
5.4.1 LTE Operator Preferences
5.4.1.1 Deployment by Operator Type
Chart 28: LTE Deployment by Operator Type (2015)
5.4.2 LTE Demands from Different Geographical Markets
Chart 29: LTE Deployment by Geography (2014)
5.4.2.1 China
5.4.2.2 India
5.4.2.3 Europe
5.4.2.4 US
5.4.3 Deployment Timeframes
5.4.3.1 Actual Commercialisation
5.4.4 LTE Handset Availability
Table 22: Devices that can be used on LTE Networks
Table 23: LTE handset checklist
Chart 30: LTE Handset Sales (2009-2015)
5.4.5 Infrastructure market
Chart 31: Infrastructure Market Share by Vendor (2015)
Chart 32: LTE Infrastructure Sales (2009-2015)
5.4.6 LTE Subscribers
Chart 33: LTE Subscriber Growth (2009-2015)
Chart 34: LTE Operator Revenues (2009-2015)
5.4.7 Return on Investment and Payback Period with LTE
5.4.8 Year 2015 Scenarios
5.4.8.1 LTE, GSM and WCDMA, HSPA all existing together
5.4.8.2 LTE and IMS in a Converged Network
5.4 8.3 LTE may be unsuccessful in Emerging Markets
5.5 Some Questions to Explore for Operators
5.5.1 Will Spectrum reframing save Money?
5.5.2 Is Cost per Bit with LTE lower than HSPA+?
Chart 35: Cost Per Bit of Data (By Industry Estimates)
5.5.3 Is Network Sharing with LTE an option?
5.5.4 Can we Devise a Sustainable and Profitable 4G Business Model?
5.6 Critical Success Factors for LTE
5.6.1 User Friendly Tariffs
5.6.2 Uniform User Experience
5.6.3 Availability of Affordable Smartphones
5.6.4 Ubiquitous Coverage
5.6.5 Managing Different Networks to Efficiently
5.6.6 Partnership with Application Developers
5.6.7 Designing Networks Efficiently
5.6.8 Selecting the best Infrastructure Provider to suit needs

6. Recommendations and Conclusion
6.1 Recommendations
6.1.1 Operators
6.1.1.1 Focus on High Revenue Per Megabyte
6.1.2 Vendors
6.1.3 Device Manufacturers
6.1.3.1 Time to Market
6.2 LTE: Becoming a Reality
  Table 26: Salient Findings of the Report