1 Executive Summary
1.1 The Diabetes Market Trajectory
1.1.1 Visiongain's Prediction for Total Diabetes Sales in 2023
1.1.2 Diabetes is Spreading at an Epidemic Rate: The Need for Pharmaceuticals is Growing
1.1.3 Diabetes Care Works: The Market Will Expand
1.1.4 Awareness, Advocacy and Government Spending Aimed at Diabetes are all Expanding
1.2 Aims, Scope and Format of the Report
1.3 Research Methodology
2 Introduction
2.1 What is Diabetes Mellitus?
2.1.1 Symptoms of Diabetes
2.1.2 Type 1 Diabetes
2.1.3 Type 2 Diabetes
2.1.4 Gestational Diabetes
2.1.5 Other types of Diabetes
2.1.6 "Pre-Diabetes": Impaired Glucose Tolerance (IGT) and Metabolic Syndrome
2.2 Health Consequences: Diabetes Can Cause Heart, Kidney, Eye and Nerve Damage
2.3 Obesity: The Major Diabetes Risk Factor
2.4 Other Risk Factors: Age, Genetics, Race
2.5 Diagnosis: Guidelines are Subject to Change
2.6 Prevalence: By All Measures, Diabetes Rates are Rising Epidemically
2.7 The Economic Costs of Diabetes
2.8 Treatments
2.8.1 Insulin: A Therapeutic Mainstay
2.8.1.1 Crucial Insulin Characteristics: Onset, Peak, and Duration Modifications
2.8.1.2 Invasive Insulin Delivery Methods: Injections, Pumps, Insulin Jets
2.8.1.3 Moving Away from Injections? Alternative Delivery Methods Under Development, and Set to Revolutionize the Market
2.8.2 Other Medications
2.8.3 More Novel Therapies? A New Discovery about How Insulin Works May Lead to New Drugs
2.9 Diabetes Treatment Noncompliance Rates 25% to 90% Currently
3 World Diabetes Market, 2008-2023: Leading Drugs
3.1 Market Forecast, 2008-2023
3.2 Byetta Forecast
3.2.1 Byetta’s Strengths
3.2.2 Restraints on Byetta
3.3 Oral Antidiabetics Forecast
3.4 Actos Forecast
3.5 Avandia Forecast
3.6 Januvia Forecast
3.7 Avandamet Forecast
3.8 Human Insulin and Analogues Forecast
3.9 Lantus Forecast
3.10 Novorapid Forecast
3.11 Humalog Forecast
3.12 Novomix Forecast
3.13 Actraphane HM Forecast
3.14 Levemir Forecast
3.15 Other Diabetes-related Drugs: Symlin and Kinedak
3.16 Alternative Delivery Methods: The Possibilities to Watch
3.16.1 Exubera: Cautionary Case Study
3.16.2 Oral Delivery Technologies
3.16.3 Transdermal Technologies
4 Leading Companies in Diabetes Treatment
4.1 Novo Nordisk
4.1.1 Insulin Plant to be Built in China
4.1.2 FDA Delays Liraglutide Once-Daily
4.1.3 Teaming up with Merrion for Oral Delivery Technologies
4.2 Takeda
4.2.1 May Seek Atherosclerosis Application for Actos
4.3 sanofi-aventis
4.3.1 Patent Infringement Case with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly
4.4 Eli Lilly
4.4.1 Eli Lilly’s Fortunes Closely Linked to Amylin’s Performance
4.5 Amylin
4.5.1 Amylin’s Future Tied to Byetta LAR
4.6 Pipeline Developments
4.6.1 Liraglutide
4.6.2 Other GLP-1 Analogues
4.6.3 DPP-4 Inhibitors
4.6.4 Biguanides
4.6.5 New Therapy Class: Sodium-glucose Cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) Inhibitors
4.6.6 Insulin Pipeline: Mostly Focused On Delivery Methods
4.6.7 Pipeline for Cures?
5 World Market Analysis by Region
5.1 United States Forecast
5.2 Europe Forecast
5.3 Japan Forecast
5.4 India Forecast
5.5 China Forecast
5.6 The Rest of the World
6 SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities & Threats) Analysis
6.1 Strengths: Diabetes is Increasing, and Diabetes Drugs Are Effective
6.1.1 Diabetes is Chronic
6.1.2 Younger Patients, More Comprehensive Diagnoses
6.1.3 Prevention Inadequate
6.1.4 Drugs Often Used in Combination
6.2 Weaknesses
6.2.1 Diagnostic Inadequacies
6.2.2 Developing Countries Cannot Afford Many Newer Drugs
6.2.3 Noncompliance Rates up to 65%
6.3 Opportunities
6.3.1 Expanding Markets: India and China
6.3.2 Changing Guidelines for Diagnosing Diabetes
6.3.3 Techniques for Increasing Patient Compliance
6.3.4 Novel Drugs, Novel Delivery Methods
6.4 Threats
6.4.1 The Most-Significant Threat: Potential Changes in Drug Approval Guidelines
6.4.2 Changing FDA Guidelines for New Drug Approvals
6.4.3 Generic Erosion
6.4.4 Vaccine to Prevent Type 1 Diabetes?
6.4.5 Highly Publicised Diabetes Drugs Side Effects
6.5 Interview with Fred Levine, M.D., Ph.D., Professor, Burnham Institute for Medical Research; Director, Sanford Children's Health Research Center
6.5.1 Alternative Delivery Methods
6.5.2 Cardiovascular Problems Associated with Oral Antidiabetics
6.5.3 Obesity and Diabetes
6.5.4 Byetta
6.5.5 Stem Cell Therapy/Cure
6.6 Interview with Björn Tyrberg, PhD., Associate Professor at Burnham Institute for Medical Research, Diabetes and Obesity Research Center
6.6.1 Diet and Diabetes
6.6.2 Link Between Obesity and Diabetes
6.6.3 Byetta and liraglutide
7 Conclusions: Diabetes is a High Growth Market
7.1 Diabetes Increasing Worldwide: High Prevalence and Incidence
7.2 World Market Value by 2023
7.3 How will Oral Antidiabetic and Insulin Sales Compare in the Future?
List of Tables
Table 2.1 Diabetes Numbers in Millions, by WHO Region
Table 2.2 Secondary Costs of Diabetes in the US
Table 2.3 Total Costs of Diabetes to Africa
Table 2.4 Diabetes World Market, 2007
Table 2.5 Insulin Types, by Onset Rate
Table 2.6 Alternative Delivery Methods in the Pipeline, by Type and Development Stage, 2008
Table 2.7 Antidiabetic Drugs by Class, 2008
Table 3.1 Diabetes Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Table 3.2 Sales Forecasts for Oral Antidiabetics and Insulins, 2008-2023
Table 3.3 Byetta Sales Forecast, 2008-2023.
Table 3.4 Oral Antidiabetic Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Table 3.5 Actos Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Table 3.6 Avandia Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Table 3.7 Januvia Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Table 3.8 Avandamet Sales Forecast 2008-2023
Table 3.9 Insulin Sales Forecast 2008-2023
Table 3.10 Lantus Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Table 3.11 Novorapid Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Table 3.12 Humalog Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Table 3.13 Novomix Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Table 3.14 Actraphane HM Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Table 3.15 Levemir Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Table 3.16 Symlin Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Table 3.17 Pipeline of Alternative Methods of Insulin Delivery, by Method and Development Stage, 2008
Table 4.1 Pipeline of Alternative Insulin Delivery Methods, 2008
Table 5.1 Sales and Market Share Forecasts, 2008-2023
Table 6.1 SWOT Table for Diabetes Therapies, 2008-2023
List of Figures
Figure 2.1 Rise in Diabetes Cases, by WHO Region
Figure 2.2 Secondary (Non-Medical) Costs of Diabetes in the US, 2007
Figure 2.3 Secondary Costs of Diabetes (minus direct medical costs), 2007
Figure 3.1 Total Diabetes Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 3.2 Diabetes Market, by Type and Market Share %, 2007
Figure 3.3 Sales Forecast for Oral Antidiabetics and Insulins, 2008-2023
Figure 3.4 Byetta Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 3.5 Oral Antidiabetic Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 3.6 Top Oral Antidiabetics, by Market Share, 2008
Figure 3.7 Actos Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 3.8 Avandia Sales Forecast 2008-2023
Figure 3.9 Januvia Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 3.10 Avandamet Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 3.11 Insulin Sales Forecast 2008-2023
Figure 3.12 Top-selling Insulins by Market Share
Figure 3.13 Lantus Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 3.14 Novorapid Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 3.15 Humalog Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 3.16 Novomix Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 3.17 Actraphane HM Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 3.18 Levemir Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 3.19 Symlin Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 4.1 Leading Companies by Market Share, 2007
Figure 5.1 Regional Sales Forecasts, 2008-2023
Figure 5.2 Market Share by Region, 2013
Figure 5.3 Market Share by Region, 2018
Figure 5.4 United States Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 5.5 European Sales Forecasts, 2008-2023
Figure 5.6 Japanese Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 5.7 Indian Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 5.8 Chinese Sales Forecast, 2008-2023
Figure 5.9 Rest of the World Sales Forecast, 2008-2023