1 Executive Summary – The Blockbuster Drug Market 2007-2012
1.1 Overview of the Report
1.2 SWOT Analysis of the Blockbuster Market
1.3 Patent Expiry Will Trigger Generic Competition
1.4 The Pharmaceutical Market Will Continue to Grow from 2007-2012
1.5 Blockbuster Sales Can Be Sustained Well into the Future
2 Blockbuster Drugs Constitute the Backbone of Global Pharma: An Introduction to the Market
2.1 The Pharmaceutical Sector is a Leading Technological Industry
2.1.1 Number of Blockbusters Has Increased Along With Competition
2.1.2 Current Pressures on Industry – Blockbuster Business Model Under the Spotlight
2.2 The World Pharmaceutical Market Continues to Grow, But Faces Mounting Challenges
2.3 Numbers of Blockbuster Drugs Have Been Increasing in Recent Years
2.3.1 The Highest Selling Drug, Pfizer’s Lipitor, Generated $13.5bn in 2006
2.4 Pharmaceutical Development is a High Risk High Gain Business
2.4.1 R&D Strategy is Crucial to Success
2.4.2 Duration of Patent Protection is Crucial
2.5 The Continuing Success of the Pharmaceutical Industry is Dependent upon Important Drivers and Restraints
2.6 Companies Are Gradually Changing Their Strategic Focus to Overcome Challenges in the Worldwide Market
2.7 The Aging Population Constitutes One of the Strongest Drivers for the Pharmaceutical Industry
2.8 Unmet Needs and Specialist Uses Will Continue To Drive Innovation
2.9 Sales of Generic Products Continue to Encroach Upon the Market for Branded Drugs
2.9.1 Volume Sales of Generics Approach 50% in Some Markets
2.9.2 Generics Manufactures Have Responded Vigorously to Market Opportunities
2.10 Patent Protection Strategies Form a Cornerstone of Lifecycle Management
2.10.1 Falling Numbers of Drug Approvals are Accompanied by Fewer Patents Submitted
2.10.2 Life Cycle Management Requires a Combination of Strategies
2.11 Drug Developers Face Increasingly Difficult Therapeutic Challenges
2.12 Increasing Developmental Times is a Serious Problem
2.13 Reducing Efficiencies in R&D Result in Concerns over Thinning Pipelines
2.13.1 Is Innovation Declining in the Pharmaceutical Industry?
2.13.2 Follow-on Products are Very Appealing to Companies
2.14 The Main Pharmaceutical Markets Are the US, Japan and the EU - But Leading Developing Nations Are Narrowing the Gap in Pharmaceutical Revenues
2.14.1 China is Rapidly Catching Up With the Leading Pharmaceutical Nations
2.14.2 The Revenue Potential in Developing Markets is Attractive
2.14.3 Pharmaceutical Companies Will Jostle Vigorously for Position in Developing Markets
2.15 The US Branded Market Faces Significant Challenges from Generics and Parallel Trade
2.16 Mandatory Price Reductions Continue to Beset the Pharmaceutical Industry
2.16.1 There Are Strong Downward Pressures on Pricing Strategies
2.16.2 Pricing is a Key Issue – One that Is Often Contentious
2.16.3 In Europe Governments are Exerting a Growing Influence on Pharmaceutical Prices
2.16.4 It Is Possible That Mandatory Cost-Controls in Germany Will Serve As a Precedent for Wider Governmental Controlling of Prices
2.16.5 Governmental Price Controls Are an Established Part of the Japanese Pharmaceutical Market
2.17 Maximising the Impact of Product Launches Yields Commercial Advantages
2.18 Strong Branding is Vital - Both in Established and Emerging Markets
2.19 Is the Blockbuster Business Model Sustainable?
3 The Global Blockbuster Market is Dominated by the Lipid Regulators
3.1 There is a Trend Towards Specialisation in the Worldwide Pharmaceutical Market
3.2 Lipid Regulator Market Will Continue to Generate High Revenues
3.2.1 The Statins Have Significant Developmental Possibilities
3.2.2 Changes to Treatment Guidelines in US and Europe Can Benefit Sales
3.3 Lipitor
3.3.1 Lipitor Will Continue its Dominance Then Face Decline Early Next Decade
3.3.2 Pfizer Will Continue to Maximise Sales Potential of the World’s Leading Drug
3.3.3 Further Development of Lipitor in Cardiovascular and Metabolic Areas
3.3.4 Pfizer's Fortunes Will Suffer Through Loss of Patent Protection on Lipitor
3.3.5 Setback of Tocetrapib May Affect Pfizer’s Resilience
3.4 Zocor
3.4.1 Zocor is a Major Cardiovascular Product
3.4.2 Zocor will Continue to Decline in Revenues
3.4.3 Development of Zocor
3.4.4 OTC Simvastatin
3.5 Other Blockbusters in Lipid Regulator Market
3.5.1 Crestor
3.5.2 Zetia
3.5.3 Tricor
3.5.4 Pravachol
4 The Anti-Ulcerants Market
4.1 The Anti-Ulcerant Market Generates Amongst the Highest Sales in the Pharmaceutical Industry
4.2 Nexium
4.2.1 Nexium Will Become a Mature Product
4.2.2 Development of Nexium
4.3 Ogastro
4.3.1 Ogastro Will Decline in Revenues after 2009
4.3.2 Ogastro's Development
4.4 Other Blockbuster Drugs in Anti-Ulcerants Market
4.4.1 Protonix
4.4.2 Pariet
4.4.3 Pantozol
4.4.4 Losec/Prilosec
5 The Antidepressant Market
5.1 Anti-Depressants Constitute Another Major Driver of Revenues
5.2 Effexor
5.2.1 Effexor's Patent Expires in 2008
5.2.2 Development of Effexor
5.3 Other Antidepressant Blockbuster Drugs
5.3.1 Zoloft
5.3.2 Lexapro
5.3.3 Wellbutrin
5.3.4 Yentreve
5.3.5 Seroxat
6 The Anti-Psychotics Market
6.1 Anti-Psychotic Drugs Also Generate High Sales
6.2 Zyprexa
6.2.1 Zyprexa's Revenue will Incrementally Increase Until 2011
6.2.2 Development of Zyprexa
6.2.3 Further Lawsuits Against Lilly's Zyprexa
6.3 Risperdal
6.3.1 Risperdal's Revenue Set to Decline after 2007
6.3.2 Development of Risperdal
6.3.3 European Approval for Invega
6.4 Seroquel
6.4.1 Seroquel is set to Peak in Revenues by 2011
6.4.2 Development of Seroquel
6.5 Other Antipsychotic Blockbuster Drugs
7 The Antineoplastics Market
7.1 Cancer is One of the Most Exciting Areas of the Pharmaceutical Industry
7.2 Mabthera
7.2.1 Mabthera's Revenues to Grow Strongly
7.2.2 Development of Mabthera
7.3 Other Antineoplastics Blockbuster Drugs
7.3.1 Herceptin
7.3.2 Glivec
7.3.3 Avastin
7.3.4 Eloxatine
8 Erythropoietin Products Market
8.1 Erythropoietin Treatments Generated the Sixth Largest Revenues in 2006
8.2 Aranesp
8.2.1 Aranesp Set to Continue its Strong Growth
8.2.2 Development of Aranesp
8.3 Erypo
8.3.1 Erypo Revenues will further Decline
8.3.2 Development of Erypo
8.4 Epogen
8.4.1 Epogen's Revenue will Further Decline
8.5 Other Erythropoietin Product Blockbuster
9 Antiepileptics Market
9.1 Antiepileptics are Another Major Therapeutic Area
9.2 Topamax
9.3.1 Topamax's Revenue will Peak in 2008
9.3.2 Development of Topamax
9.3.3 Tentative FDA Approval for Generic Topiramate
9.4 Other Antiepileptic Blockbuster Drugs
9.4.1 Lamictal
9.4.2 Valcote
9.4.3 Lyrica
9.4.4 Keppra
10 Calcium Antagonists Market
10.1 Calcium Antagonists Are a Major Anti-Hypertensive Class
10.2 Norvasc
10.3 Sales of Norvasc will Peak in 2006
10.4 Novartis Markets Amlodipine in a Combination Treatment
10.5 Development of Norvasc
10.6 Ranbaxy and Teva Given FDA Approval for Amlodipine
11 Oral Antidiabetics Market
11.1 Oral Anti-Diabetics Contained Two Blockbusters in 2006
11.2 Actos
11.2.1 Actos Will Steadily Increase in Revenues
11.2.2 Generic Threats Loom
11.2.3 Development of Actos
11.3 Other Oral Antidiabetic Blockbuster Drugs
12 Platelet Aggregation Inhibitors Market
12.1 Platelet Aggregation Market is Led By Plavix
12.2 Plavix
12.2.1 Plavix set to Continue in Similar Manner
12.2.2 Development of Plavix
13 Angiotensin-II Antagonists Market
13.1 Angiotensin-II Antagonists Will Lead the Hypertension Market from 2007-2012
13.2 Diovan
13.2.1 Diovan's Patent Due to Expire in 2012
13.2.2 Development of Diovan
13.3 Other Angiotensin-II Antagonist Blockbuster Drugs
13.3.1 Cozaar
13.3.2 Blopress
14 Antirheumatic Agents Market
14.1 Anti-Rheumatics are Led by Rheumatoid Arthritis Drugs
14.2 Enbrel
14.2.1 Sales of Enbrel will Increase Gradually from 2006 to 2012
14.2.2 Development of Enbrel
14.3 Other Antirheumatic Agent Blockbuster Drugs
15 Other Blockbusters
15.1 Seretide
15.2 Singulair
15.3 Remicade
15.4 Lovenox
15.5 Neulasta
15.6 Blockbuster Companies
15.7 Biotech Blockbusters on the Rise
15.7.1 Biotechnology is an Important and Fast Growing Part of R&D
15.7.2 Biosimilars (Biogenerics) are a Serious Threat
16 Commercial Drivers and Restraints Facing Blockbusters
16.1 A SWOT Analysis for Blockbusters
16.2 Drivers of the Blockbuster Drug Market
16.2.1 Need for Greater R&D Efficiency
16.2.2 A New Type of Blockbuster Targeting Common Biological Disease Mechanisms
16.2.3 Need for Greater Stakeholder Collaboration
16.2.4 Increasing Use of Pharmacoeconomic Evaluations
16.2.5 Electronic Medical Records Will Be Established in Major Markets by Next Decade
16.2.6 Need to Take More Commercial Risks
16.3 Restraints on the Blockbuster Drug Market
16.3.1 The Generics Market is Growing More Rapidly than the Branded Market
16.3.2 The Pharmaceutical Industry Can Overcome Restraints on the Market
16.3.3 Greater Fragmentation of the Pharmaceutical Market Will be Seen – Greater Need for Specialisation
16.3.4 Expansion of Primary Care Sector
16.3.5 Need to Concentrate More on R&D and Needs of Patients, Prescribers and Payers
16.3.6 Companies Turn to Asia for R&D Expertise
16.4 Focus Will Have to Shift from Treatment to Prevention
16.5 The Industry Will Have to Engage With Healthcare Stakeholders for Mutual Benefit
16.6 The Industry Must Try Harder to Regain Trust of Other Healthcare Stakeholders
16.7 Biotechnology and Emerging Technologies
16.7.1 Pharmacogenomics is Increasingly Relevant to Pharmaceutical Development
16.7.2 Biomarkers and Theranostics
16.8 Developing Companies Can Benefit from Radical Changes to Regulatory Processes
16.9 Greater Regulatory Co-operation
16.10 Patent Expiry
16.10.1 Changes to Patent Laws Could Benefit Patients While Giving Incentives to Companies
16.11 Strategies to Extend Revenues for Expired Blockbusters
16.11.1 Strategies for Branded Manufacturers
16.11.2 Combination Therapies Constitute an Attractive Option for Some Products
16.11.3 OTC Switching Is Becoming More Prevalent
16.11.4 Reformulation and Extending the Range of Indications: The Most Prominent PLM Strategies
16.11.5 Authorised Generics - The Most Aggressive PLM Strategy
16.12 Marketing
16.12.1 There Will be a Greater Emphasis on Supporting Services – Specialised Companies May be Advantageously Placed to Differentiate Themselves Successfully
16.12.2 The Empathy Approach to Drug Marketing
16.12.3 Key Elements in DTC Advertising
16.13 Compliance Monitoring
16.13.1 DTC Advertising is Controversial – There is Now More Emphasis on Patient Education Instead
16.14 Is There a Relationship Between DTC Advertising and Blockbuster Success?
16.15 Changes to Production Methods and Distribution Channels Will Be Significant
16.16 Visiongain Concludes that the Industry Will Generally Adapt to Pressures Threatening the Blockbuster Model
17 Emerging Products with Blockbuster Potential
17.1 Acomplia
17.1.1 Acomplia High Therapeutic and Commercial Potential
17.1.2 Further Acomplia Filings Expected in Late 2007
17.2 Gardasil
17.3 Tekturna/Rasilez
17.4 Cervarix
17.5 Cimzia
17.6 Galvus
17.7 Pristiq
17.8 Allermist
17.9 Tykerb
17.10 Janumet
18 Pipeline Developments with Blockbuster Potential
18.1 Oncology is the Most Fertile Area for High Potential R&D
18.1.1 Aging Populations Drive Market Expansion
18.1.2 Cancer Has a High Public Profile
18.1.3 Recent Advances Benefit Patients and Drive Market Expansion
18.2 Pfizer is the Worlds Leading Investor in Pharmaceutical R&D
18.2.1 Pfizer has Largest Pipeline in its History
18.2.2 Pfizer Recently Established a Major R&D Collaboration with BMS
18.3 Research Pipeline for Pfizer
18.3.1 CP 945598 and Capromorelin
18.3.2 Axitinib
18.3.3 Ticilimumab
18.3.4 SU 6668
18.3.5 Promune
18.3.6 Apixaban
18.3.7 AEGR 733
18.3.8 CP 866087
18.3.9 PD 332334 and CP 448187
18.3.10 SD 6010 and SC 84250
18.3.11 PF 03187207 and AG 13958
18.3.12 Zeven
18.3.13 Influenza Vaccine
18.4 Research Pipeline for GlaxoSmithKline is Strong
18.4.1 Rosiglitazone/Simvastatin
18.4.2 Belimumab
18.4.3 Mapatumumab
18.4.4 Agent 501516
18.4.5 Relacatib
18.4.6 Cervarix
18.4.7 H5N1 Vaccine
18.5 Research Pipeline for Novartis
18.5.1 Galvus
18.5.2 Fingolimod (FTY 720)
18.5.3 Optaflu and Focetria
18.5.4 Focetria
18.5.5 Nicotine-Qbeta
18.6 Research Pipeline for Sanofi-Aventis
18.6.1 AVE 0005
18.6.2 Idraparinux Sodium
18.6.3 Xaprila (xaliproden)
18.7 Research Pipeline for Johnson & Johnson
18.7.1 Rivaroxaban
18.7.2 Paliperidone Palmitate
18.8 Research Pipeline for AstraZeneca
18.8.1 Saxagliptin and Dapagliflozin
18.8.2 Rosuvastatin/Choline Fenofibrate
18.9 Research Pipeline for Merck & Co
18.9.1 MK 0524A and MK 0524B
18.9.2 Isentress
18.10 Research Pipeline for Roche
18.10.1 Mircera
18.10.2 TG 4001
18.11 Research Pipeline for Abbott
18.11.1 TAK 390MR
18.11.2 ABT 355 and Proposed Combination Treatments for Lipid Regulation
18.12 Research Pipeline for Amgen
18.12.1 AMG 221
18.12.2 AMG 076
18.12.3 Denosumab
18.13 Research Pipeline for Wyeth
18.13.1 Bifeprunox
18.13.2 Pristiq
18.14 Research Pipeline for Eli Lilly
18.14.1 Eli Lilly is Noted for its Rationalisation of R&D and Its Biotechnological capabilities
18.14.2 Arxxant (Ruboxistaurin)
18.14.3 Prasugrel
18.15 Research Pipeline for Bayer
18.15.1 Rivaroxaban
18.16 Research Pipeline for Bristol-Myers Squibb
18.16.1 Saxagliptin
18.17 Research Pipeline for Boehringer Ingelheim
18.17.1 Flibanserin
19 Conclusions from this Study
19.1 The Pharmaceutical Sector is a Leading Technological Industry
19.1.1 Number of Blockbusters Has Increased Along With Competition
19.1.2 Current Pressures on Industry – Is the End of the Blockbuster Nigh?
19.2 The World Pharmaceutical Market Continues to Grow Despite Mounting Challenges
19.3 Pfizer’s Lipitor Dominated the Market in 2006
19.4 Unmet Needs and Specialist Uses Will Continue to Drive Blockbuster Sales
19.5 Sales of Generic Products Pose The Greatest Threat to Blockbuster Revenue Streams
19.6 Key Blockbusters Will Perform Well in the Years 2007-2012
19.6.1 Lipitor
19.6.2 Nexium
19.6.3 Effexor
19.6.4 Zyprexa
19.6.5 Mabthera/Rituxan
19.6.6 Aranesp
19.6.7 Topamax
19.6.8 Norvasc
19.6.9 Actos
19.6.10 Plavix
19.6.11 Diovan
19.6.12 Enbrel
19.6.13 Seretide
19.7 Issues Facing the Global Pharmaceutical Industry
19.7.1 Drivers of the Blockbuster Drug Market
19.7.2 Restraints on the Blockbuster Drug Market
19.7.3 The Generics Sector is Growing More Rapidly than the Branded Market
19.7.4 The Pharmaceutical Industry Can Overcome Restraints on the Market
Appendix A: Sales Data 2006
Appendix B: About Visiongain
Appendix C: Visiongain Report Evaluation Form
List of Tables
Table 1.1 Top 20 Blockbuster Drugs, 2006
Table 1.2 A SWOT Chart for Blockbuster Drugs, 2007-2012
Table 2.1 Revenue Generation ($bn) by the World Pharmaceutical Industry, 2000-2006
Table 2.2 Forecast Revenue Generation ($bn) by the World Pharmaceutical Market, 2006-2012
Table 2.3 Top 20 Blockbuster Drugs, 2006
Table 2.4 World Population 60 and Over, 2000-2050
Table 2.5 Top 20 Ranking Nations in the Global Pharmaceutical Market, 2006
Table 3.1 Number of New Molecular Entities
Table 3.2 Lipid-Modifying Blockbuster Drugs, 2006
Table 3.3 Sales of Lipitor ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 3.4 Sales of Zocor ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 4.1 Anti-Ulcerant Blockbusters
Table 4.2 Sales of Nexium ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 4.3 Sales of Ogastro ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 5.1 Antidepressant Blockbuster Drugs
Table 5.2 Sales of Effexor ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 6.1 Antipsychotic Blockbuster Drugs
Table 6.2 Sales of Zyprexa ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 6.3 Sales of Risperdal ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 6.4 Sales of Seroquel ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 7.1 Antineoplastic Blockbuster Drugs
Table 7.2 Sales of Mabthera ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 8.1 Erythropoietin Product Blockbusters
Table 8.2 Sales of Aranesp ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 8.3 Sales of Erypo ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 8.4 Sales of Epogen ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 9.1 Antiepileptic Blockbuster Drugs
Table 9.2 Sales of Topamax ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 10.1 Calcium Antagonist Blockbusters
Table 10.2 Sales of Norvasc ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 11.1 Oral Antidiabetic Blockbuster Drugs
Table 11.2 Sales of Actos ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 12.1 Platelet Aggregation Inhibitor blockbuster
Table 12.2 Sales of Plavix ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 13.1 Angiotensin-II Antagonist Blockbuster Drugs
Table 13.2 Sales of Diovan ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 14.1 Antirheumatic Agent Blockbuster Drugs
Table 14.2 Sales of Enbrel ($bn), 2003-2006
Table 15.1 Other Blockbuster Drugs
Table 15.2 Top Ten Companies by Revenue and Blockbusters, 2006
Table 16.1 A SWOT Chart for Blockbuster Drugs, 2007-2012
Table 16.2 Pharmaceutical DTC Spend Across all Media
Table 16.3 Top 10 DTC Drug Spends
Table 16.4 Marketers - DTC Advertising Expenditure
Table A1 Blockbuster Drugs, 2006
Table A2 US Blockbuster Drugs, 2006
Table A3 Canada Highest Drugs Earners, 2006
Table A4 Japan Highest Drugs Earners, 2006
Table A5 Germany Highest Drugs Earners, 2006
Table A6 France Highest Drugs Earners, 2006
Table A7 UK Highest Drugs Earners, 2006
Table A8 Italy Highest Drugs Earners, 2006
Table A9 Spain Highest Drugs Earners, 2006
Table A10 Blockbuster Drugs Achieving Blockbuster Status, 2006
Table A11 Brands Losing Blockbuster Status, 2006
List of Figures
Figure 2.1 Revenue Generation ($bn) by the World Pharmaceutical Industry, 2000-2006
Figure 2.2 Forecast Revenue Generation ($bn) by the World Pharmaceutical Market, 2006-2012
Figure 2.3 Number of Blockbuster Drugs, 2000-2006
Figure 2.4 The Increasing Average Cost ($m) of NME Development, 1976-2005
Figure 3.1 Changing Nature of Drugs
Figure 3.2 Sales of Lipitor ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 3.3 Sales of Lipitor ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 3.4 Sales of Zocor ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 3.5 Sales of Zocor ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 4.1 Sales of Nexium ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 4.2 Sales of Nexium ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 4.3 Sales of Ogastro ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 4.4 Sales of Ogastro ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 5.1 Sales of Effexor ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 5.2 Sales of Effexor ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 6.1 Sales of Zyprexa ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 6.2 Sales of Zyprexa ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 6.3 Sales of Risperdal ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 6.4 Sales of Risperdal ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 6.5 Sales of Seroquel ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 6.6 Sales of Seroquel ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 7.1 Sales of Mabthera ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 7.2 Sales of Mabthera ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 8.1 Sales of Aranesp ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 8.2 Sales of Aranesp ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 8.3 Sales of Erypo ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 8.4 Sales of Erypo ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 8.5 Sales of Epogen ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 8.6 Sales of Epogen ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 9.1 Sales of Topamax ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 9.2 Sales of Topamax ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 10.1 Norvasc ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 10.2 Sales of Norvasc ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 11.1 Sales of Actos ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 11.2 Sales of Actos ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 12.1 Sales of Plavix ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 12.2 Sales of Plavix ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 13.1 Sales of Diovan ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 13.2 Sales of Diovan ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 14.1 Sales of Enbrel ($bn), 2003-2006
Figure 14.2 Sales of Enbrel ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 15.1 Sales of Seretide ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 15.2 Sales of Singulair ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 15.3 Sales of Remicade ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 15.4 Sales of Lovenox ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 15.5 Sales of Neulasta ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 16.1 Pharmaceutical DTC Spend Across all Media