1. Executive Summary: Asian Developing Markets for Pharmaceuticals, 2006-2011
2. The Global Pharmaceutical Industry Faces Significant Challenges – Will Expansion into Developing Markets Prove to Be the Answer?
2.1 The World Pharmaceutical Market Continues to Grow at a Moderate Rate
2.2 The Principal Markets Are the US, Japan and Leading EU Economies - But Leading Developing Nations Are Narrowing the Gap in Pharmaceutical Revenues
2.3 China is the Ninth Largest World Pharmaceutical Market
2.4 North America, Europe and Japan Continue to Dominate the World Pharmaceutical Market, But Sales in the Developing Markets Are Increasing More Rapidly
2.5 High Growth in the Developing Markets
2.6 China is a Most Exciting Prospect for the Pharmaceutical Industry
2.7 Latin America Exhibits Great Promise for Growth of Pharmaceutical Revenues
2.8 WTO Agreements Affect Pharmaceutical Developments In Emerging Markets
2.9 The Continuing Success of the Pharmaceutical Industry is Dependent Upon Important Drivers and Restraints
2.10 Pharmaceutical Companies Will Jostle Vigorously for Position in Developing Markets
2.11The Pharmaceutical Sector Is Gradually Changing Its Strategic Focus to Overcome Challenges in the Market
2.12 Sales of Generic Products Continue to Encroach Upon the Market for Branded Drugs
2.13 Patent Protection Strategies Form a Cornerstone of Lifecycle Management
2.14 Is Innovation Declining in the Pharmaceutical Industry?
2.15 There Are Strong Forces Acting on Pharmaceutical Pricing In Leading Markets - The Industry Is Under Pressure
2.15.1 The US Branded Market Faces Significant Challenges From Generics and Parallel Trade
2.15.2 Mandatory Price Reductions in Europe Continue to Harass the Pharmaceutical Industry
2.15.3 Governmental Price Controls Are an Established Part of the Japanese Pharmaceutical Market
2.15.4 It Is Possible That Mandatory Cost-Controls in Germany Will Serve As A Precedent For Wider Governmental Controlling of Prices
2.15.5 Reducing Efficiencies in R&D Result in Concerns Over Thinning Pipelines
2.16 Maximising the Impact of Product Launches Yields Commercial Advantages
2.17 Strong Branding is Vital - Both in Established and Emerging Markets
2.18 Expansion Into Developing Countries Will Help to Reinvigorate The Pharmaceutical Industry from 2006-2011
3. The Chinese Pharmaceutical Market
3.1 The Chinese Market for Pharmaceuticals Will Expand to $25bn in 2011
3.2 Growth in National and Personal Prosperity Will Raise Demand for Pharmaceutical Products in China
3.3 Remaining Concerns About the Commercial Environment in China Will Act As a Restraint to Market Growth
3.4 The Pharmaceutical Market in China Will be Driven by the Especially Strong Performance of the Chinese Economy from 2005 to 2011
3.4.1 Political and Economic Reform Has Led to a Burgeoning Private Sector – International Pharmaceutical Companies Have Already Established Themselves in China
3.4.2 China’s Economic Output May Rise to $4 Billion by 2020
3.4.3 Greater Expectations for Healthcare and Increasing Resources to Pay for Treatments Will Further Drive the Chinese Pharmaceutical Market
3.4.4 Marked Disparities Exist Between the Cities and the Rural Areas – Relative Poverty Is a Continuing Problem for China, With Implications for the Pharmaceutical Market
3.4.5 Both The Chinese Economy and Its Pharmaceutical Market Benefit from Having the World’s Largest Population and Labour Force
3.4.6 Expansion of Education and Training in China Will Increasingly Benefit the Pharmaceutical Sector
3.5 The State Food and Drug Administration is The Main Pharmaceutical Regulator in China
3.6 Western Medicine is Gradually Superseding Traditional Medications in China
3.7 Yangzijiang Pharmaceutical Was the Market Leader in 2005 With International Pharmaceutical Leaders Also Performing Well
3.7.1 Novartis Is a Leading Pharmaceutical Investor in China
3.7.2 Pfizer Reported Initiatives to Expand its Presence In China and To Align Itself More Closely With Healthcare Authorities
3.7.3 Novo Nordisk Recently Announced Expansion of Production in China
3.8 Mandatory Pricing Reductions Cause Some Concerns to the Industry
3.9 The Centralised Tendering System Has an Effect on Pharmaceutical Revenues
3.10 Counterfeiting and the Violation of Patents Are Still Problematical In China
3.10.1 Protection of Intellectual Property is Gradually Improving In China But Serious Concerns Remain
3.10.2 Many Sales of Counterfeits and Illegal Generics Occur via the Internet
3.10.3 Pfizer Recently Initiated an Anti-Counterfeiting Programme in Shanghai
3.10.4 The Chinese Authorities Are Tightening Regulations and Enforcement
3.11 That China is The Largest and Most Attractive Developing Market
4. The Indian Pharmaceutical Market
4.1 The Indian Pharmaceutical Market Will Expand Rapidly from 2005-2011
4.2 The Indian Pharmaceutical Market Will Benefit from Many Important Drivers
4.3 Potential for Growth In the Indian Market Is Exciting, But Poverty and Lack of Developments Remain Serious Hurdles
4.4 India Is the Second Fastest Growing Major Economy After China
4.5 Political And Economic Reforms Have Eased India’s Transition into the Modern, Globalised Economy
4.6 Widespread Poverty Remains a Major Problem in India - There is a Vast Potential Market for Pharmaceuticals But Usually Only Limited Resources for Purchasing Branded Drugs
4.7 India Has an Expanding Professional Class Which Serves As a Strong Driver of Growth in The Pharmaceutical Market
4.8 Domestic Companies Generated 75% of Sales in the Indian Pharmaceutical Market in 2005
4.8.1 Leading International Brands are Aimed at More Exclusive Market Niches Than Cheaper Domestic Products
4.8.2 India Has a Particularly Strong Generics Industry – With the Profile of That Sector Growing Internationally Despite Reduced Domestic Opportunities
4.8.3 The Re-Introduction of Patent Protection Will Increasingly Drive the Market for Branded Products, Especially Those From International Companies
4.8.4 Indian Companies Are Engaging in Joint Ventures and Spin-Off Ventures to Perform Original R&D
4.8.5 The Indian Pharmaceutical Sector is Attractive to Foreign Investors
4.9 State Governments Are Responsible for Providing Healthcare – However Patients Are Very Reliant on The Private Sector
4.9.1 The National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) Should Provide a Significant Boost to Public Healthcare
4.9.2 Physicians Often Make Prescribing Decisions Based Upon the Resources of the Patient
4.9.3 Changes to the Indian Pricing System are Imminent
4.9.4 The Government in Combination With the Gates Foundation Has Announced the Establishment of Public Health Institutes in India
4.10 India Currently Has A Fragmented Procedure for Drug Approval – The Establishment of a National Drugs Agency Should Rationalise the Process
4.11 India Is a Highly Attractive Location for R&D Activities
4.12 The Indian Pharmaceutical Market: Conclusions
5. Other Developing Pharmaceutical Markets in Asia
5.1 Asia Constitutes the World’s Largest Developing Market for Pharmaceuticals, With Immense Potential for Growth from 2005 to 2011
5.2 Developing Asian Pharmaceutical Markets Have Important Advantages for Companies
5.3 Low Per Capita Healthcare Spending Constitutes the Most Significant Restraint to the Asian Pharmaceutical Market
5.4 It is Not Yet Clear How Well Public and Private Initiatives Will Raise Standards of Healthcare Consistently in Asia
5.5 Prices in Asia Face Increasing Pressure from Governmental Controls and Market Forces
5.6 Protection of IP is a Key Concern in Asia
5.7 Markets for Generics Will Show Continuing Growth as Asian Markets Depend Heavily on Basic Drugs
5.8 The Asian Market Will Be Strongly Driven by Growth in Key Therapeutic Categories
5.9 The Pharmaceutical Market in South Korea
5.9.1 The US Welcomes South Korea's New Policy on Pharmaceuticals
5.10 The Pharmaceutical Market in Turkey
5.11 The Pharmaceutical Market in Taiwan
5.12 The Pharmaceutical Market in Indonesia
5.13 The Pharmaceutical Market in the Philippines
5.14 The Pharmaceutical Market in Thailand
5.15 Overview of Developing Pharmaceutical Markets in Asia
6. Conclusions
6.1 China Will Produce the Largest Revenues of All the Developing Pharmaceutical Markets As Well As the Highest Growth Rate
6.2 Overall Growth of the Leading Developing Markets from 2005-2011 Will Be More than Twice that of the Global Pharmaceutical Market
6.3 The Leading Developing Markets Combined Will Generate More Than a Sixth of Global Pharmaceutical Revenues in 2011
6.4 The Main Drivers of Developing Markets Will Be Increasing Prosperity and High Un-met Needs for Modern Treatments
6.5 The Main Restraint to Growth Will Be Continuing Poverty in the Developing World
List of Tables
Table 2.1 Revenue Generation ($bn) by the World Pharmaceutical Industry, 1999-2005
Table 2.2 Forecast Revenue Generation ($bn) by the World Pharmaceutical Market, 2005-2011
Table 2.3 Top 20 Ranking Nations in the Global Pharmaceutical Market, 2005
Table 2.4 How the Top 10 Markets Compared With The Rest of the World, 2005
Table 2.5 World Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) by Region, 2005
Table 2.6 Revenues ($bn), Growth (%) and Market Share (%) for Leading Developing Markets, 2005
Table 2.7 Combined Revenues ($bn), Growth (%) and Market Share (%) for Leading Developing Markets by Region, 2005
Table 2.8 A SWOT Analysis for Developing Pharmaceutical Markets, 2006-2011
Table 2.9 The 10 Most Populous Countries – 2005 and 2030 Compared
Table 3.1 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for China, 2005-2011
Table 3.2 China: Fundamental Demographics and Healthcare Economics
Table 4.1 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for India, 2005-2011
Table 4.2 India: Fundamental Demographics and Healthcare Economics
Table 5.1 Revenues ($bn) for Leading Markets in Asia, 2005-2011
Table 5.2 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for South Korea, 2005-2011
Table 5.3 South Korea: Fundamental Demographics and Healthcare Economics
Table 5.4 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for Turkey, 2005-2011
Table 5.5 Turkey: Fundamental Demographics and Healthcare Economics
Table 5.6 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for Taiwan, 2005-2011
Table 5.7 Taiwan: Fundamental Demographics and Healthcare Economics
Table 5.8 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for Indonesia, 2005-2011
Table 5.9 Indonesia: Fundamental Demographics and Healthcare Economics
Table 5.10 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for the Philippines, 2005-2011
Table 5.11 Philippines: Fundamental Demographics and Healthcare Economics
Table 5.12 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for Thailand, 2005-2011
Table 5.13 Thailand: Fundamental Demographics and Healthcare Economics
Table 6.1 The Leading Developing Markets Ranked in Order of Potential Revenue Generation ($bn), 2011
Table 6.2 Developing Markets Ranked by Growth Rate (CAGR %), 2005-2011
Table 6.3 Revenues ($bn) for Leading Developing Markets by Region, 2005-2011
Table 6.4 Share (%) of the World Market by Developing Region, 2005-2011
List of Figures
Figure 2.1 Revenue Generation ($bn) by the World Pharmaceutical Industry, 1999-2005
Figure 2.2 Forecast Revenue Generation ($bn) by the World Pharmaceutical Market, 2005-2011
Figure 2.3 World Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) by Region, 2005
Figure 2.4 World Market Share (%) by Region, 2005
Figure 2.5 Growth Rates (%) from Previous Year by Region, 2005
Figure 2.6 The Increasing Average Cost ($m) of NME Development, 1976-2005
Figure 3.1 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for China, 2005-2011
Figure 3.2 World Market Share (%) for China – 2005 and 2011 Compared
Figure 3.3 Breakdown (%) of the Chinese Market ($bn) by Conventional Prescription Drugs, OTC Products and Traditional Chinese Medicines, 2005
Figure 3.4 Estimated Revenues of Leading Companies in the Chinese Pharmaceutical Market, 2005
Figure 3.5 Leading Therapeutic Areas ($m) In the Chinese Pharmaceutical Market, 2005
Figure 4.1 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for India, 2005-2011
Figure 4.2 World Market Share (%) for India – 2005 and 2011 Compared
Figure 4.3 Breakdown (%) of India's GDP by Sector, 2005
Figure 4.4 Sales of Leading Companies in the Indian Market, 2004
Figure 4.5 Leading Therapeutic Areas ($m) In the Indian Pharmaceutical Market, 2005
Figure 4.6 A Breakdown (%) of the Indian Government's Budget for Healthcare, 2006-2007
Figure 5.1a Revenues ($bn) for Leading Markets in Asia, 2005-2011
Figure 5.1b Revenues ($bn) for Leading Markets in Asia, 2005-2011
Figure 5.2 Combined Revenues ($bn) for Leading Markets in Asia, 2005-2011
Figure 5.3 Growth Rates (% CAGR) for the Asian Developing Markets, 2005-2011
Figure 5.4 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for South Korea, 2005-2011
Figure 5.5 World Market Share (%) for South Korea – 2005 and 2011 Compared
Figure 5.6 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for Turkey, 2005-2011
Figure 5.7 World Market Share (%) for Turkey – 2005 and 2011 Compared
Figure 5.8 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for Taiwan, 2005-2011
Figure 5.9 World Market Share (%) for Taiwan – 2005 and 2011 Compared
Figure 5.10 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for Indonesia, 2005-2011
Figure 5.11 World Market Share (%) for Indonesia – 2005 and 2011 Compared
Figure 5.12 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for the Philippines, 2005-2011
Figure 5.13 World Market Share (%) for the Philippines – 2005 and 2011 Compared
Figure 5.14 Pharmaceutical Revenues ($bn) for Thailand, 2005-2011
Figure 5.15 World Market Share (%) for Thailand – 2005 and 2011 Compared
Figure 6.1 Revenues ($bn) for Leading Developing Markets by Region, 2005-2011
Figure 6.2 Revenues ($bn) for Leading Markets of Developing Regions Combined, 2005-2011
Figure 6.3 Share (%) of the World Market by Developing Region, 2005-2011
Figure 6.4 Share (%) of the World Market by Developing Regions Combined, 2005-2011